Warner Crocker

Segmenting The Future Of Computing

The days when the costs of technology decreasing over time have passed.

I’ve been writing a small bit about the segmentation I see coming in how we currently think of computing. Yes, it’s about Artificial Intelligence, and yes, it’s about money. There’s no question that we’re already seeing price increases due to chip shortages, but I’m thinking that’s just the beginning of what will make Apple’s reputation of shipping too expensive computers, prior to the MacBook Neo, seem like a memory.

A close-up photograph of overlapping neon signs illuminating a dark background. In the foreground, a prominent bright green neon sign is shaped like a dollar symbol ($\$$) by Aedrian salazar Wy7Gy8ZcW1M unsplash.

There’s no question that the cost associated with Artificial Intelligence is driving this and will continue to do so. The question is how much? Note that in the latest announcements from Google, Microsoft, and Nvidia heralding what’s coming that price tags weren’t revealed. Quite frankly from the way I’m reading the tea leaves scattered among the press releases, most of these companies are skittish because they don’t even know how high the cost curve is going to bend. Or they’re afraid of the sticker shock once they do find the courage to announce them.

The way I see it, the next period of time is going to be one where if you can afford the steeper prices of hardware and AI services, you’ll be able to play on that level. Those that can’t, and may not even need to, will be gradually left behind. Although for many that won’t prove to be that much of a problem given their needs. Initially.

Tell me honestly, what has any AI company promised, prior to this coming age of agents, that most computers can’t already do? Heck, even some of the promises agents can supposedly deliver don’t seem to offer that much more, unless you’re a software developer or in math sciences.

That said, operating systems and software are all being geared up along with consumer hardware to make the expensive side of the equation be the standard.

Already we’re seeing moves away from AI robots doing their work in the various clouds. Companies are prepping local AI models to be installed on devices. Those local models are going to require memory and processing power that’s going to further drive up the hardware costs while possibly reducing the token tax. Gaming hardware is about to become really expensive. Back in the cloud, eventually we’re all going to be paying for search. Probably sooner, rather than later, if you want decent results.

Speaking of taxes. Governments are starting to sniff around with their divining rods, sensing new money reservoirs to be tapped, while watching water resources stretched thin. There’s obviously a thirst. If, when, and where that happens will just add costs to be passed down the line.

Take a look at this quote from Microsoft’s Satya Nadella:

“There are really two stories people can tell about this moment. One is that technology concentrates power, reduces human agency, and leaves to society to absorb the consequences. The other is that we use this next wave to unlock opportunity for developers, scientists, enterprises, and every community. And our job is to make the second story true.”

On the surface it sounds like there’s opportunity for what’s coming to be all inclusive. Clever. Beneath that surface I think Nadella is hinting that unless your computing needs are in fields of endeavor that will require AI to be competitive, you’re at the tail end of that second story and will probably be on the outside looking in while absorbing the consequences. There’s really only one story.

As I mentioned earlier, there are plenty of users who don’t need the latest and greatest hardware and will probably be just fine without. For a time. Unless the big players create operating systems and hardware that segment out some of what will only become compute heavy advances, consumers will eventually find today’s tasks more challenging and less secure as existing hardware slows down and future security updates are released on slower schedules.

Of course that also leaves an opening.

Perhaps companies that offer hardware and services that don’t push whatever current AI envelope is being pushed, might find a willing market. You could argue that Apple’s MacBook Neo, and Dell and others’ recent announcements to counter that somewhat surprising move, might presage this. Without lower entry price points, who knows, a lot of users might just return back to the days of envelopes and snail mail.

That’s probably too extreme a reaction, but we’ve seen similar reactions to technology in the past, some quite recent, once the gee whiz factor has worn off like the letters on cheap keyboards on even expensive computers. Think touch screen displays instead of buttons and dials in cars. Think home automation. Think the Metaverse. Think talking appliances. Think cars and machinery that require maintenance contracts. Think 3D TVs.

Those that love to dabble and explore frontiers and have the money to do so will always seek the next adventure. Go for it. Those who just want to send a birthday greeting, create a holiday card, share a calendar, proofread a document, or search for a local merchant don’t want a hustle or a hassle, or the increased expense that’s obviously coming.

For the moment, the days when the costs of technology decreasing over time have passed.

(Image from Aedrian Salazar on Unsplash)

You can also find more of my writings on a variety of topics on Medium at this link, including in the publications Ellemeno and Rome. I can also be found on social media under my name as above. This site does not use affilate links.

Yikes! Chicago Bears Caleb Williams Will Be On The Cover of Madden NFL 27

Cursed or not?

Chicago Bears football fans are gasping with excitement and stocking up on antacid today after it was announced that the team’s quarterback, Caleb Williams, has been picked to grace the 2027 cover of the popular game Madden NFL.

Promotional cover art for the video game "Madden 27" features an action shot of Chicago Bears Quarterback Caleb Williams mid-air preparing to toss a pass against a deep blue sky.

It’s certainly great recognition for the quarterback who had some amazing moments on the field last year in a surprising Bears season. He’s an exciting, if sometimes erratic player who managed to pull out last minute victories with some spectacular plays more times than not. Of course the other side of that coin is that more consistent play by the quarterback and the team should theoretically lead to less of those hair raising/pulling moments. But a win is a win.

However, the cover recognition is also believed by quite a few to be a curse for the player chosen, presaging down seasons or possible injury. According to CBS Sports 14 or the 24 players chosen between 2001 and 2024 had less than spectacular seasons after being so anointed.

Whether or not it’s a curse, who knows. But it does just add another level of anxiety for Bears fans already on edge heading into a season where we should find out what this team is made of after a season that surprised most. With the upcoming season schedule rated as the toughest in the NFL and a number of players who led the way last year lost to free agency or retirement, it was already shaping up to be nerve wracking.

It’s not easy being a Chicago sports fan.

The Smartest Thing I’ve Read In A Long Time

We Are Living In Pinocchio’s World

I read a lot. It’s so ingrained in me it’s become part of my DNA. Good writers and writing are like magnets. I’m drawn to it. I live to read something that strikes me upside the head, or cuts deep in the heart. Om Malik’s piece, We Are Living In Pinocchio’s World, struck hard and cut deep. Go read it.

Jametlene reskp Q79XFGuTFfM unsplash. Om is a writer I’ve paid attention to for quite a while. What he thinks and writes is alway informative. Typically his topics are tech related. But in this piece he’s done what I often attempt to do, (not nearly as well as he), weaving together the common threads about tech and politics, or more importantly the people behind them both, that bind one to another into a whole with the precision of a finely tuned instrument. In this case, a pen. You have to read it.

Here’s an excerpt:

Most people remember Pinocchio as a story about lying. The nose grows. You get caught. Lesson learned. But that reading misses almost everything Collodi was actually doing. The book is a close study of a society where deception has gone ambient, woven into every institution, every transaction. Courts punish victims. Authority figures perform competence without exercising it. Experts are decorative. Society holds together through spectacle and habit rather than accountability. Into this environment, a naive creature is released, constitutionally unable to resist a good story about easy reward.

The nose is the least interesting lie in the book. The interesting lies are the ones that work.

You need to read Om’s piece to discover which are the lies that work. If you’re a fan of the story you can probably guess or recollect, but the writing here takes you there in wonderful ways. Either way, you’ll come away thinking that they are as plainly visible as the nose on your face. Yet somehow our gaze always seems focused to look past that.

Pinocchio is a favorite story of mine. I’ve directed a play version in the past. Perhaps Malik’s piece hit me so squarely because I spent time with the book during my preparation for that gig. It was a production for young audiences. The kids always loved it. Their parents or accompanying adults always seemed a little agitated after the performances. Thought of as the children’s story it was originally written as, it contains truth we adults conveniently forget or choose to ignore. Even in the much reduced stage version for young audiences the theme reveals its mark as squarely as it hits it.

As Malik puts it “Pinocchio is a story about a society organized around deception.”

He’s dissected the story, originally published in serial form, and reassembled and animated the core of its humanity in ways that not only meet our moment, but distill the chaos into a sublime simplicity. Much the way any skilled wood carver and maker of puppets would be envious of.

I won’t say any more. I’ll just say again, go read it.

(image from Jametlene Reskp on Unsplash)

Thoughts Before WWDC 2026

Looking ahead and looking back

Wait and see.

That’s the summary of my thoughts for Apple’s World Wide Developer Conference this year. That event happens next week. The waiting and seeing will happen over the summer, possibly all the way until this time next year.

I’m not talking about what Apple will talk about at the conference and in the keynote. I’m talking about what they actually deliver down the road and when they deliver it for the numerous operating systems with 27 tagged on at the end. Some will get love. Some won’t. That’s nothing new. (Ask iPad users.) For a company with so many resources each year’s releases always seem to curiously remind me that Apple picks a platform to focus on, and seems content to let others wither on the vine for a time.

To be fair, I’ve always had a wait and see attitude towards most tech announcements, because what looks sexy and is hyped in the demos, press releases, and podcasts, sometimes makes it into the hands of users, sometimes not. Prior to 2024, Apple usually delivered on what it promised. But that changed with Apple Intelligence. A name I bet they wish they’d never let see the light of day. They didn’t deliver then and haven’t since. They promise they will this time, although who knows what that will really mean. The weight of wait and see has become heavier.

This also comes at a time when there’s a burgeoning backlash building among consumers against anything related to Artificial Intelligence. So the climate is not nearly as inviting as it was two years ago. For what’s it worth, I think it’s becoming harder and harder to sell any product or feature that guarantees its inaccuracy up front, promising to do better in the future. But there sure seem to be enough takers and talkers thinking different on that than I.

Curiously, Apple seems to be hedging its bets, apparently set on using Google’s AI as the foundation. Some say that’s a place holder until Apple rolls its own AI after it’s mistaken first rollout, the way it did with Maps. Some say it’s a wise move for the future because it might save Cupertino some cash and more blowback from having to build out its own data centers. I say, wait and see.

From what I read Google may be reinventing itself and the Internet with its efforts, but those efforts aren’t meeting with thunderous applause and accolades. At least compared to Google’s competitors. Besides effectively putting Google in the catbird (chatbot?) seat driving all AI chatbot activity on the majority of handsets sold on the planet (Android and iOS), who knows how it will turn out. No chatbot can predict, nor can any human. That said, the marketing puzzle about what’s Apple and what’s Google is going to be fun to watch play out, even in the end it’s going to be meaningless to most consumers.

There’s also word that this year’s OS releases will also focus on fixes and not new features the way Snow Leopard did for Leopard on Macs back in the day. Intriguingly there were quite a new features for Macs in that release. Speaking of Macs, there’s also talk that they will see more of Liquid Glass than we saw the first time around. To be honest, I’m grateful for last year’s comparative neglect of Liquid Glass on the Mac. I’m waiting and seeing with a bit of trepidation how attention is focused on that this year. I’m also waiting on the day when someone finds a way to sell me on rounded corners on rectangular displays.

I would welcome fixes. Boy, would I welcome fixes. I’ve long maintained that the cadence of Apple’s OS release cycles is too rapid to allow it to effectively address problems. I get that there’s a long view and a necessity to look ahead, but when you’re hearing leaks about the next year’s efforts before this year’s are announced I think the tempo is too fast and it becomes too tempting to push things off until the next year.

I’ve written about a number of things that bug me off and on. Because they bug me off and on. I’ll list some that stand out that I wish would get attention. That said, most seem to fall back on issues with iCloud. Hearing talk that however Apple rolls out the new Siri or chatbot feature will allow that feature’s chat history to sync across devices via iCloud gives me a shutter. I’m guessing that will lead to more unexplainable stops and stutters in iCloud syncing in general.

So, here’s a small list of things I hope, but am not counting on, seeing addressed.

iCloud syncing. Just make it reliable and give us Sync Now buttons. We get one is Messages. How about the rest of the core apps?

Perpetual Betas: I know, and respect that Apple is continuing to work on each new operating system throughout the year. Kudos. It can’t be easy. That said, find a way to keep from mucking things up on the backend for users who don’t participate in betas. Perpetual beta weirdness is hell for normal users.

Phone app. Apple made significant changes last year. They need to make more. There’s no reason in the world I can see for not going all in to help users more efficiently get rid of unwanted or fraudulent calls.

Error Messages. Tell us more. Yes, I know something failed. Tell me more about what failed and point to a solution or information that can help me find out more.

Apple Mail. Rules in Apple Mail need to work consistently, or just be done away with. Features in Apple Mail on iPhones and Macs need to be brought into line with each other. It makes a mockery of trying to unify things between iOS and macOS.

Shortcuts. Yesterday’s future is probably some tomorrow’s further fading feature. Shortcuts are great when Apple doesn’t change things behind the scenes that cause them to break. That happens too often. Rumors that you’ll be able to create them via a chatbot sounds potentially promising. But if they are still going to randomly break, what really is the point?

Contacts. A small amount of attention could do wonders with this seemingly forgotten, yet essential app.

Apple Music on the Mac. Why is this app so bad for a company that says over and over again that it loves music?

Reminder Notifications for Shared Reminders. There has to be a way to programmatically dismiss a shared reminder notification once it has been completed and marked off. Fix it. It is just simply annoying. Especially in the context of all of the improvements in the Reminders app the last few years.

App Store. For a company that spends untold amounts of money on its brick and mortar stores, I remain shocked at how they can be proud of the software versions of any of its App Stores.

watchOS Software UI: We’ve already heard there won’t be much in the way of changes for the Apple Watch this year. But at least pay attention to some of the software design.

Settings. Find a way to clean up this mess. There has to be a way.

Note that many of the issues listed above are still hanging around and are the same as in my list last year.

As much as the attention will be on whatever Apple attempts with Apple Intelligence after WWDC 26, attention will also quickly pivot to the fall when new devices are announced. Given that we’ve heard countless times that devices like Apple TV and HomePods, and other home related products, are waiting in the wings for software focused on AI features to catch up, it will be curious to see what attention, if any, they get during WWDC. I don’t think those devices will be announced until the fall. I don’t expect any hardware announcements of any kind next week.

Speaking of waiting in the wings, much will also be made about this being Tim Cook’s final WWDC as CEO with John Ternus due to take spotlight this September. Much attention will be paid to the semiotics surrounding all of that during WWDC and after. That will be interesting to watch, but since WWDC 2026 feels more and more like a catch up year all around, I’m guessing next year’s event might be more telling. We’ll have to wait and see.

So, there’s my thoughts. That and nickel won’t buy you anything.

Hot Dogging It

Fun times in the city

Yesterday I took a stroll through the neighborhood to once again visit the Windy City Hot Dog Fest. It’s an annual weekend event for hot dog lovers and street fair aficionados, blocking off Milwaukee Avenue for a few blocks in front of the under renovation Portage Theatre.

Of course visitors can order up a typical Chicago hot dog, but that’s not the point. There are also a few exotic creations available. I mean, you can get a typical Chicago hot dog any day of the year, but ordering up a rattlesnake and rabbit sausage is something else entirely. I did order up one of those, along with a snapper and alligator sausage as well. Both were excellent.

In addition to the hot dogs there’s a variety of beers available as well as the other street or county fair staples like funnel cakes and of course corn dogs.

There’s even choices for those not looking for hot dogs.

You can also find all of the usual civic and social organizations with booths and information, as well as a variety of merchants selling their non-edible wares.

What impressed me the most this year was the large number of families with small children enjoying the day, the food, and the fun. I’m sure they’ve been there in past years, but this year I was struck that so many chose to take a break from all of whatever we’re living through to enjoy fun, food and the day together on a few blocks in a very wonderfully diverse city.

More shots in the gallery below.

Snookered

Time to do better

Damnit. I was snookered.

Photo on 5-14-14 at 3.05 PM.

Those who follow this blog have probably read a Sunday Morning Reading column or two. In that column I link to what I believe to be good writing on important topics that interest me. In the most recent Sunday Morning Reading column I got snookered and posted a link to a piece that is fake, as is the entire Internet publication that posted it.

Now let’s get this straight there’s plenty of blame to go around. I should have checked further into the story prior to linking to it. But as I said in an update to the post, it was a feel good story, and caught my eye at a time when I, and just about everyone else is desperate for any story that offers a ray of hope.

So that’s on me. Apologies to all those who come here.

But there’s also plenty of blame to be pointed at AllChronology.com, the owner of the site Chronology. I’m not linking to them here. The site is easy enough to find. I left the original link up in the original post as a reference, along with an update acknowledging my error.

That website is filled with stories, that I can only assume are AI generated. If you search for the authors of articles (most listed as distinguished) you won’t find the handful I searched for. That handful is enough to let me know that the guiding hand behind this site is connected to a body of rubbish.

So, yes. I’m pissed off. At myself, and at whoever the humans (one can only make the assumption that there is a human presence in their somewhere) are behind this publication. It would be one thing if there were ads on the site. I don’t see any, so I assume it’s just data harvesting in some way or the other. I don’t get the point. Frankly, I don’t think there is one. The logic behind this bastardized effort makes no sense.

The bottom line is we’re living in a world where you can’t trust anything, or anyone. That sucks. I care. I hope you do too. I would hope those who come here trust what I write about and link to and I’m sorry I led you astray on this one.

Time to do better.

Sunday Morning Reading

Biker heroes, cheese thieves, and stupidity checklists

Sunday Morning Reading time with stories and good writing about crime, incompetence, technology, shifts and changes, and cheese. There’s also hope in and amongst the chaos. Add a slice of cheese to your morning repast and give a read.

A rustic indoor display features a wide variety of artisanal cheese wheels and blocks stacked tightly on wooden shelving. On the left, smooth, rectangular orange-brown blocks are piled horizontally. On the right and center, large round wheels of varying sizes are stacked vertically, displaying diverse rinds—ranging from textured dark brown and dusty gray to smooth ochre and patterned beige. Photo by Azzedine rouichi YW_5rJvAdKw unsplash.

Starting this week’s edition with a surprising feel good story that reminds us we shouldn’t judge books by covers. Marlon G. Baxter tells the tale of young hearing impaired child who was saved from being trafficked in a Walmart by what appeared to most as an unlikely hero. You need to read “Heroes Wear Leather Too”: How A Deaf Child And A Biker Stopped A Trafficking Plot.

UPDATE: This pisses me off. Apparently the feel good story linked above is fake. I and several others have looked into it and it’s not holding up. Pardon my swearing, but this is so goddamned frustrating. I’m leaving the link and my description in for two reasons. Pointing out that we can’t trust a damn thing on the Internet anymore. Secondly, that really sucks given we’re all in a posture of looking for hope whenever we can find it.

In the wake of what’s happening at the ICE Delaney Hall ~~detention center~~ internment camp in New Jersey, Josh Kovensky recounts the story of what happened in the courts after similar battles over humanity happened earlier in Chicago. Check out How The Broadview Six Fought The Trump DOJ—And Found Massive Wrongdoing In The Process. Tough to see hope in these horrible moments as they occur, and it’s hard to believe we have to rely on the incompetence of evil doers after the fact, but here we are.

Speaking of incompetence, there are stories and there are stories. Andrew Kersley’s The Body In The Wheelchair: How Did A Troubled Family Get Lost By the State? This a tough read to digest on a Sunday or any day, but definitely worth your time.

On the arts and politics front, a court has ruled Trump has to take his name off of the Kennedy Center and not close it down for renovations. Sounds like a victory. In the long term it may be, but Janay Kingsbury tells us that in the immediate future the damage may already have been done in Trump Hasn’t Left Much Kennedy Center To Stay Open. So much of what’s happening these days hurts my heart, but this misadventure hits me where I live.

Everything is changing, like it or not. Sonny Bunch thinks Hollywood is standing on the doorstep of yet another pivotal moment. Check out Hollywood’s About To Change (Again).

As far as pivotal moments go, there are quite a few happening all around us. Especially regarding searching the Internet. Google is reinventing itself and the Internet, leaving an opening for companies like DuckDuckGo and Kagi. Doc Searls writes How DuckDuckGo Can Be A Hero. Let’s hope these search companies seize the moment that’s before them.

And while we’re on the topic of tech, John Siracusa has published The EV Stupidity Checklist, suggesting ways the EV industry might get back on track. John could and should publish one of these for so many things in the tech sector. Perhaps also for so many other sectors of our lives.

I’m a cheese fan, and I’ve been known to nick a slice or two off of the hors d’oeuvres tray before the guests arrive. Olivia Potts tells us how organized crime fell in love with cheese in The Grate Cheese Robbery. Who knew cheese was the most stolen food in the world?

(Image from Azzedine Rouichi on Unsplash)

If you’re interested in just what the heck Sunday Morning Reading is all about you can read more about the origins of Sunday Morning Reading here. If you’d like more click on the Sunday Morning Reading link in the category column to check out what’s been shared on Sunday’s past. You can also find more of my writings on Medium at this link, including in the publications Ellemeno and Rome. This site does not use affilate links.

Tilting

Hoping gravity does its job

Several of my areas of interest seem to be tilting, leaning closer of late to the point when gravity might take over and bring the bad guys down. If you read anything at all here, you know I’m talking about AI and what passes for politics as practiced here in the U.S.

Leaning Tower of Pisa ommy fogelberg Xf_dj8e2 s unsplash.

I wish I was in a position to help things along with a stronger push, but alas that’s not the case. If things do ever fall over it would certainly be destructive, but in my opinion, no more so than the destruction currently being visited upon us.

I mean the bad guys have tilted the pinball machine so far that it’s mostly beyond repair and I’m amazed you can still send the balls down the chute.

(Photo from Tommy Fogelberg on Unsplash)

The Emperor’s New Car Wreck

A recycled, decaying spectacle

Once upon a time there was a guy named Hans Christian Anderson who wrote a story about an emperor who was exposed (literally) by his own vanity. We’re living that now here in the U.S. I’m actually amazed that this administration hasn’t banned every copy of The Emperor’s New Clothes, but it’s possible it’s above most of their reading levels.

The emperors new clothes.BltLFigK_Z2aBtTL.

Nothing ever really changes, it just gets recycled. Anderson’s story was actually based on others from Aesop to Persian folktales. So even within the frame we used to think of as American exceptionalism, we can’t claim this farce as our own. It’s like a virus or a comet that comes along every now and then. Or watching a car wreck. Or a train. Perhaps a space ship explode on a launch platform.

Regardless, I do think we’ll probably be able to claim the worst version of the story when this one does come to an end.

It’s more than obvious that Trump and his sloppy lickspittle sycophants can’t run a country, a war, an economy, or apparently not even a big 250th celebration of America’s founding without making a fool of themselves while they dig deeper holes for the rest of us. Small hint: you just need lots of fireworks and a military band. As long as the members meet the height and weight requirements.

They’re good at grifting and making money. For themselves. Apparently there are still enough suckers out there willing to pony up. That’s the only surprising part of our version. Although some who’ve seen enough are looking for new digs in Argentina. I’m guessing the real estate market there will see boom times as others follow. As long as the data centers don’t get there first.

The sinking spectacle is so obvious that it feels like most have started to ignore the water rising around their ankles, hoping they develop webbing between their toes. Those still shocked seem to be adopting a wait it out attitude. That makes some sense. There’s nothing really to be done until he’s no longer on the planet. Although I do have my doubts that his courtiers will even announce that he’s gone once he passes, out of fear for their own lives. We might even get a new definition of what death is. We’ll all be living through a Death of Stalin moment. Which is a shame because that movie was actually a good one. And funny. Watch it and see that part of our future.

Or just read The Emperor’s New Clothes. Not for anything new. There’s no insight to be gleaned with your eyes shut or turned away from what we’re seeing. But it’s better than watching the literal decay displayed daily on some screen or the other.

One day there’s going to be a large cleanup on aisle six. It will probably be as messy as it is glorious.

The Economics of AI Don’t Add Up

Bottom lines are where everything sinks to eventually

Money talks. Bullshit walks. Bubbles pop, and the world just keeps on burning while the big wheels just keep on turning. Pick a vibe. Pick a cliché. Pick a metaphor. Pick and mangle a song lyric. Just don’t try to pick a winner in the big AI race when it comes to dollars and cents. Or sense. The racers are running in circles, burning the planet and dollars trying to figure out how to keep things on a track no one has figured out quite yet.

Hint: It’s a circle, jerks.

From the beginning the hype about Artificial Intelligence has felt like it’s all about the vibes. So many vibes. I define “the beginning” as when OpenAI took the wraps off of ChatGPT and kick started the race. Maybe they should have just done a Kickstarter.

Those were heady days. I remember everyone thinking ChatGPT would replace Google. Now we’re at the point where Google is trying to replace itself.

Today, chatbots are replacing human connections, and all sorts of crustaceans are being installed on computers, causing some havoc in the hardware markets along the way. Things have now progressed to a point that folks are vibe coding up a storm, now that it seems more doable. And it’s interesting to see and hear some who were initially skeptical about the broad scope of AI now embracing it. For what it’s worth, the current vibe feels to me like AI is heading into its GUI phase of computing, only you need a keyboard or a microphone instead of a mouse to get around on a screen or without one.

And yet, when it comes to the money game, the vibe feels like the math behind all those 0’s and 1’s might not add up.

Corporations are starting to scale back usage now that the bills are coming in. Microsoft and other tech companies are pulling plugs, in most cases for third party access among the employees they haven’t let go. At the same time there’s whispers that AI costs are beginning to exceed the costs of human employees. Corporations are starting to adjust because the beans they are counting don’t look like they will add up and no one has vibe coded an accounting app yet to project when, of if they will.

Consumers are looking at that $20 month subscription cost and backing off while trying to choose which, if any, of the constantly updating models that still promise inaccuracy will give them the best monthly bang for a double sawbuck. To make the math sting even more, Google, OpenAI, Claude, etc… are tossing around $100 a month (and higher) plans for the latest and supposedly best features that make $20 a month feel like a poor man’s vibe.

There’s a technology intersection that has always been on the roadmap for computing technology since the dawn of the personal computer. To an extent, enterprise computing always subsidized consumer technology. The vibes I’m sensing hint that roadmap may be changing, and it won’t just affect the costs of using AI, computer memory, and chip production. It potentially may filter into every facet of life from medical bills, to insurance premiums, to any wholesale or retail concern that might employ AI. Don’t think for a minute that any company is going to simply eat the rising costs of AI usage, or cut back prices should using it somehow actually produce savings from cutting employees.

Call me when you hear the first company touting that they are cutting costs due to AI. Trust me, I won’t be waiting by the phone.

If a vibe has a bottom line, here’s how I see this one. We’re heading into a moment where what we think of as computing and the Internet is going to run on two diverging tracks. It’s becoming obvious that whether someone is running any of the AI robots on their own device or somewhere on the Internet that the costs are more than anyone could have predicted, or thought might become sustainable.

The $20 a month marker was a big hint early on. We were all used to the Internet come on of getting in free, being swamped with ads, and then having to eventually subscribe so our data could be collected. That $20 a month heralded a change, but only at the point of entry.

Given that we all know that advertising is coming to AI, we’re escaping the orbit that we’ve been in for quite some time that most of the Internet was free but required a level of tolerance for advertising. I’m guessing that those who can only afford the $20 a month price tag with ads will think back on the ways we’ve complained about the streaming entertainment services and their ad proliferation as quaint by comparison.

The Circle

That $20 entry fee will rise. So will the more expensive options. I’m actually surprised we haven’t see that already. The fact that AI has to continually train itself to remain relevant means it’s going to continue to need new computing cycles to consume whatever is generated in the future, whether by humans or robots. I don’t think you can build enough data centers on the surface of this planet, under the sea, or in space to afford the churn and burn. That’s the circle. In the end it’s a real estate play that yields only cul-de-sacs.

Take a look at this article from Simon Willison. Unlike my pessimistic vibe on this, Willison seems to think Anthropic and OpenAI have found their product-market fit. He’s spending $200 a month ($100 to each) and considers that a bargain since his usage of the two generated $2,180 change in token use for a month. That math certianly adds up as a good deal in the current moment. Until you consider that at some point the difference between what he’s paying and what he’s using is going to have to be put on somebody’s balance sheet in some way. These companies can’t run at a loss forever.

It’s a good piece by Willison that informs quite a bit on this discussion and worth your time, because I think that’s what the discussion is going to inevitably come down to. Set aside all of the debates about accuracy, copyright, and environmental issues. Set aside the rising consumer backlash. Bottom lines are where everything sinks to eventually.

I admire and am grateful for folks like Willison, Federico Viticci, and others who are exploring this frontier and think we should be paying attention to their efforts and learn from them. Viticci has crafted a few interesting bits of software of late and spent some coin in doing so. I’m enjoying reading about his efforts.

I may be wrong, but it feels like we might be headed to a point that to use some software in the future we’re going to need one of these ever changing and increasingly expensive AI engines on our computers to run some of the software that will be generated in the future. That will certainly come with a price tag. If, (actually in my opinion when) that happens, it will become another border defined by costs, dividing users between those who can afford the entry fee, and those who can’t.

It will also affect far more than our computing lives.

(Image from Viktoria_P on Shutterstock)