We’ve hit a moment. A moment where the fissures, already yawning open quite wide, could widen further, into a destable maw beyond anything most could possibly imagine. And it’s all due to a 4-3 decision by the Colorado Supreme Court that will quickly head to the U.S Supreme Court.
The Colorado Supremes saying “Stop” to Trump’s Republican party ballot presence have in essence called the question on and for all of us. Not just on whether he can be on the ballot and thus potentially elected. That’s certainly the immediate stakes. But there are larger stakes that are about to be exposed.
This was always headed to SCOTUS. Depending on which team you root for you probably feel frightened by that or encouraged, given the makeup of that collection of corrupt pseudo-gods in black robes that the constitution enshrines and entrusts as the last line of its own defense.
These nine, for better or worse, are about to make a decision that may just put everything that follows to rest. Or they may just punt and let it linger until the election. Either way there’s going to be chaos.
From what I can tell, (admittedly I’m a bit swamped between work, the holidays and such so I haven’t see everything,) the legal underpinnings of the Colorado court’s decsion are sound. Some even say it’s a decision engineered to make those who use “strict constructionism” as a shield and a weapon to have second thoughts about taking up those well polished and well worn arms. But others say that’s bunkum. Either way, we’re in the slight sliver of the moment when you can say whatever the hell you want because only nine voices matter.
Though the law should be the deciding factor, the stakes I’m talking cut deeper.
Assuming that those who think the decision is legally sound are correct, there is an opportunity to rid us all of this meddlesome miscreant for both his allies as well as his opponents. Set him aside and move on. Us the law to do it. It may be late term, but this is an abortion most would welcome. Although too many will pretend they don’t. Some have had the chance to do this before and let the opportunity pass (U.S. Senate) thinking he’d fade away. We all seem to know that’s not going to happen again.
This is a country that has allowed itself to be bullied and terrorized, while trying to wrap its head around the destruction of cherished concepts (free speech, democracy, etc…) searching for some way out of the mess, hoping for some sort of deus-ex-machina. There’s no way but to go through it. And there’s no savior in the wings. Regardless of what SCOTUS decides, much of what held us together has been taken from us and tossed in the ash can of history. And here we are at another of those moments.
Should the conservative majority of the Supreme Court steer the decision to keep Trump off the ballot, I think we’ll have the answer we’ve all suspected for too long now. Vast swaths of our country, terrified of the demographic changes inexorably coming are willing to do just about anything to propel us backwards. Something about burning down a village to save it, I guess. And if things get lit up, why not just get on with it and get it over with. That’s the fear. And it’s a real one. I hope we don’t see that. I think we will, regardless of a SCOTUS decision now or after next November’s election results.
Intriguingly, I think Trumpty Dumpty’s allies would benefit more than his opponents from a decision that keeps him off a ballot or two. What continues to masquerade as the Republican party would probably find some new life after first stumbling over the reactions to such a momentus descion. Whatever they stumbled into would probably have a better chance of beating Biden, assuming they can actually sideline the orange buffoon, which is indeed questionable. But that’s an argument for a rational world. And we don’t have one of those any longer.
My hunch is that SCOTUS will punt rather than puncture the big orange balloon.
Life on the Wicked Stage: Act 3 
If SCOTUS lets Trump be disqualified, whether just in Colorado or nationwide, I wouldn’t expect that to trigger a civil war, at least not immediately.
The other side’s party leaders and office holders — federal, state, and local — have ways they can use within the system to win office in 2025, means other than winning popular votes. Their followers already have some knowledge of these other means because some of their leaders discuss these openly, so it’s not as if the real die-hards on their side will imagine that immediate armed revolt is the only way they have left to win. Their leadership will be very eager to not have any of their followers engage in premature acts of violence that would prompt the military and police to side with the Ds, so they can be counted on to reinforce the message that they have this under control.
We haven’t seen specific responses to disqualification discussed much because that has always seemed pretty unlikely. I think it’s still quite unlikely. But if SCOTUS makes that unlikely outcome actually happen, the other side’s leaders will respond by relying on the joint session to make Trump president anyway. If they control even one chamber, House or Senate, they will insist that Colorado’s EV tally for Biden not be accepted, and the same for EV tallies from any state that did not have Trump on the ballot. If this is enough EVs to keep Biden’s total below 270, they’re done, because the contingent election thing will make Trump president. Even if it’s not enough states that disqualified him, so that Biden still gets to 270, they will claim that Trump’s not being on the ballot in Colorado means that the only reason Trump did not carry enough states to get to 270 was that his supporters everywhere were discouraged from voting.
If SCOTUS decrees that no state can have Trump on the ballot, it gets trickier for them, but just one chamber can still withhold its approval of the Biden EV tallies and produce an impasse. If they hold the speakership, an impasse means that their speaker, which they will arrange to be Trump, becomes president at noon on 1/20/25. If Jeffries is instead Speaker, an impasse might prod the Ds to accept the contingent election outcome as a means to avoid the civil war that is the other side’s ace in the hole.
Playing the war card only at the end, only if and when all else fails, avoids a risky war that might have been unnecessary because they could have done the steal peacefully had they just given peace a chance. Waiting until the end also makes it much more likely that they would win such a war, and at best have it be a coup that they win, rather than some costly prolonged civil war that they might lose. If they only play the war card in the end-game case of Jeffries about to become president by default at noon on 1/20/25, they have a much better chance of having much more of the military and police cross the Rubicon with them. Any violence while Biden, a person elected to the office, is still commander-in-chief whose orders they are bound by oath to follow, and enough police and military would presumably be much less likely to follow the Rs across the Rubicon.
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